The Singularity - a good summary article

Reinventing Humanity: The Future of Machine–Human Intelligence

By Ray Kurzweil

We stand on the threshold of the most profoundand transformative event in the history of humanity,the “Singularity.”

What is the Singularity? From my perspective, theSingularity is a future period during which the paceof technological change will be so fast and far-reach-ing that human existence on this planet will beirreversibly altered. We will combine our brainpower—the knowledge, skills, and personality quirksthat make us human—with our computer power inorder to think, reason, communicate, and create inways we can scarcely even contemplate today.

This merger of man and machine, coupled with the sudden explosion in machine intelligence and rapid innovation in gene research and nanotechnology, will result in a world where there is no distinction betweenthe biological and the mechanical, or between physi-cal and virtual reality. These technological revolutionswill allow us to transcend our frail bodies with alltheir limitations. Illness, as we know it, will be eradi-cated. Through the use of nanotechnology, we will beable to manufacture almost any physical productupon demand, world hunger and poverty will besolved, and pollution will vanish. Human existence will undergo a quantum leap in evolution. We will beable to live as long as we choose. The coming into being of such a world is,in essence, the Singularity.

How is it possible that we could be so close to this enormous changeand not see it? The answer is the quickening nature of technological innovation. In thinking about the future, few people take into consideration the fact that human scientific progress is exponential: It expands by repeatedly multiplying by a con-stant (10 times 10 times 10, and soon) rather than linear (10 plus 10plus 10, and so on). I emphasize theexponential-versus-linear perspec-tive because it’s the most importantfailure that prognosticators make inconsidering future trends.