Reinventing Humanity: The Future of Machine–Human Intelligence
By Ray Kurzweil
We stand on the threshold of the most profoundand transformative event in the history of humanity,the “Singularity.”
What is the Singularity? From my perspective, theSingularity is a future period during which the paceof technological change will be so fast and far-reach-ing that human existence on this planet will beirreversibly altered. We will combine our brainpower—the knowledge, skills, and personality quirksthat make us human—with our computer power inorder to think, reason, communicate, and create inways we can scarcely even contemplate today.
This merger of man and machine, coupled with the sudden explosion in machine intelligence and rapid innovation in gene research and nanotechnology, will result in a world where there is no distinction betweenthe biological and the mechanical, or between physi-cal and virtual reality. These technological revolutionswill allow us to transcend our frail bodies with alltheir limitations. Illness, as we know it, will be eradi-cated. Through the use of nanotechnology, we will beable to manufacture almost any physical productupon demand, world hunger and poverty will besolved, and pollution will vanish. Human existence will undergo a quantum leap in evolution. We will beable to live as long as we choose. The coming into being of such a world is,in essence, the Singularity.
How is it possible that we could be so close to this enormous changeand not see it? The answer is the quickening nature of technological innovation. In thinking about the future, few people take into consideration the fact that human scientific progress is exponential: It expands by repeatedly multiplying by a con-stant (10 times 10 times 10, and soon) rather than linear (10 plus 10plus 10, and so on). I emphasize theexponential-versus-linear perspec-tive because it’s the most importantfailure that prognosticators make inconsidering future trends.
Thursday, August 31, 2006
Tuesday, August 29, 2006
Axelrod on Cancer Cell Cooperation
via KurzweilAI
An analysis of how cells in a tumour cooperate has provided a unique insight into the evolution of cancer, and may lead to new treatments.
It makes use of "game theory" – the mix of mathematics and economics theory that has been invaluable in understanding how cooperation can evolve in animal societies, even when individuals are selfish.
Robert Axelrod, a political scientist at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, US, a leader in applying game theory to evolutionary biology, has now turned his attention to cancer.
Since every cancer cell within a tumour is different, with different mutations and needs, each of these cells can be thought of as a “player” in a game theory sense, Axelrod says.
Independently malignant
The “game” – to grow a successful tumour – proceeds more efficiently for all players if they cooperate, and this can occur without requiring the players to make conscious strategies.
“It’s well established that tumour cells grow by diffusing growth factors into the neighbouring tissue,” says Axelrod. Some cells lack the “full deck” of mutations necessary to produce all the growth factors, overcome host defences and become independently malignant.
But cells can aid each other by complementing the missing growth signals. A cell that promotes blood vessel growth to the tumour will also benefit other pre-cancerous cells.
“It’s Adam Smith’s old idea that if people cooperate it’s easier to get the job done,” Axelrod says, referring to the 18th-century philosopher. “Cooperation is thought of as a good thing, and cancer bad. It may be the reason why no one has thought of putting the two together.”
Diffusion chemicals
Recognising that tumour cells grow and recruit others through cooperation in this way has implications for understanding how cancer develops, and may lead to new approaches to therapy, Axelrod suggests
.
“For example, you could change the micro-environment of a tumour so that the diffusion chemicals don’t travel so far,” he says.
Laura-Jane Armstrong, at Cancer Research UK, says it is “very plausible” that different subtypes of cancer cells may cooperate to support each other's growth. “This could also explain some of the differences seen within cells from the same tumour, and even how tumours can acquire resistance to treatments.”
Axelrod and colleagues propose several methods to test the theory, and Armstrong says that if it is confirmed experimentally it could have major implications for how we treat cancer: “If there are sub-populations of different cancer cells within a single tumour, it could mean multiple drugs are needed to target all the different types of cell that contribute to the cancer.”
Journal reference: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (vol 103, p 13474)
An analysis of how cells in a tumour cooperate has provided a unique insight into the evolution of cancer, and may lead to new treatments.
It makes use of "game theory" – the mix of mathematics and economics theory that has been invaluable in understanding how cooperation can evolve in animal societies, even when individuals are selfish.
Robert Axelrod, a political scientist at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, US, a leader in applying game theory to evolutionary biology, has now turned his attention to cancer.
Since every cancer cell within a tumour is different, with different mutations and needs, each of these cells can be thought of as a “player” in a game theory sense, Axelrod says.
Independently malignant
The “game” – to grow a successful tumour – proceeds more efficiently for all players if they cooperate, and this can occur without requiring the players to make conscious strategies.
“It’s well established that tumour cells grow by diffusing growth factors into the neighbouring tissue,” says Axelrod. Some cells lack the “full deck” of mutations necessary to produce all the growth factors, overcome host defences and become independently malignant.
But cells can aid each other by complementing the missing growth signals. A cell that promotes blood vessel growth to the tumour will also benefit other pre-cancerous cells.
“It’s Adam Smith’s old idea that if people cooperate it’s easier to get the job done,” Axelrod says, referring to the 18th-century philosopher. “Cooperation is thought of as a good thing, and cancer bad. It may be the reason why no one has thought of putting the two together.”
Diffusion chemicals
Recognising that tumour cells grow and recruit others through cooperation in this way has implications for understanding how cancer develops, and may lead to new approaches to therapy, Axelrod suggests
.
“For example, you could change the micro-environment of a tumour so that the diffusion chemicals don’t travel so far,” he says.
Laura-Jane Armstrong, at Cancer Research UK, says it is “very plausible” that different subtypes of cancer cells may cooperate to support each other's growth. “This could also explain some of the differences seen within cells from the same tumour, and even how tumours can acquire resistance to treatments.”
Axelrod and colleagues propose several methods to test the theory, and Armstrong says that if it is confirmed experimentally it could have major implications for how we treat cancer: “If there are sub-populations of different cancer cells within a single tumour, it could mean multiple drugs are needed to target all the different types of cell that contribute to the cancer.”
Journal reference: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (vol 103, p 13474)
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